Further Readings & Links (to be updated continuously)

Popular Books About Prediction

  • Agrawal, Ajay, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb. 2018. Prediction Machines : The Simple Economics of Artificial Intelligence. Boston, Mass.: Harvard Business Review Press.
  • Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. 2007. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House.
  • Tetlock, Philip E, and Gardner Dan. 2015. Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. New York: Crown Publishers.
  • Silver, Nate. 2012. The Signal and the Noise: Why so Many Predictions Fail, but Some Don’t. New York: Penguin Press.
  • Siegel, Eric. 2013. Predictive Analytics: The Power to Predict Who Will Click, Buy, Lie, or Die. Hoboken, N.J.: Wiley.

Prediction in the Philosophy of Science

  • Barrett, Jeff, and P Kyle Stanford. 2005. “Prediction.” In The Philosophy of Science: An Encyclopedia, edited by Jessica Pfeifer and Sahotra Sarkar. New York: Routledge.
  • Douglas, Heather. 2009. “Reintroducing Prediction to Explanation.” Philosophy of Science 76 (4): 444–63.
  • Douglas, Heather, and P D Magnus. 2013. “State of the Field : Why Novel Prediction Matters.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science 44 (4): 580–89.
  • Oreskes, Naomi. 2000. “Why Predict? Historical Perspectives on Prediction in Earth Science.” In Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature, edited by Daniel Sarewitz, Roger A. Pielke, and Radford Byerly, 23–40. Washingtion D.C.: Island Press.
  • Gardner, Michael R. 1982. “Predicting Novel Facts.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 33 (1).
  • Maher, Patrick. 1988. “Prediction, Accommodation, and the Logic of Discovery.” PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988 (1): 273–85.
  • Worrall, John. 1989. “Fresnel, Poisson, and the White Spot: The Role of Successful Predictions in the Acceptance of Scientific Theories.” In The Uses of Experiment: Studies in the Natural Sciences, edited by David Gooding, Trevor Pinch, and Simon Schaffer, 135–57. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  • Scerri, Eric R., and John Worrall. 2001. “Prediction and the Periodic Table.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 32 (3): 407–52.
  • Brush, Stephen G. 2007. “Predictivism and the Periodic Table.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 38 (1): 256–59.

Prediction & Explanation

  • Hempel, Carl G. 1962. “Explanation in Science and in History.” Frontiers of Science and Philosophy.
  • Hempel, Carl G, and Paul Oppenheim. 1948. “Studies in the Logic of Explanation.” Philosophy of Science 15 (2).
  • Salmon, Wesley C. 1997. “Causality and Explanation: A Reply to Two Critiques.” Philosophy of Science 64 (3).
  • Salmon, Wesley C. 1989. “Four Decades of Scientific Explanation.” Minnesota Studies in the Philosophy of Science 13.
  • Scheffler, Israel. 1956. “Explanation, Prediction, and Abstraction.” British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 7 (28).
  • Talk by Paul Hoyningen-Huene on the relation ship between prediction and explanation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fABS9loKmM

Novel Predictions in the Realism Debate

  • Musgrave, Alan. 1988. “The Ultimate Argument for Scientific Realism.” In Relativism and Realism in Science, edited by Robert Nola. Dordrecht: Kluwer.
  • Psillos, Stathis. 2001. “Predictive Similarity and the Success of Science: A Reply to Stanford.” Philosophy of Science 68 (3).
  • Lyons, Timothy D. 2003. “Explaining the Success of a Scientific Theory.” Philosophy of Science 70 (5): 891–901. https://doi.org/10.1086/377375.
  • Stanford, P Kyle. 2000. “An Antirealist Explanation of the Success of Science.” Philosophy of Science 67 (2).

Prediction in the Context of Climate Science

  • Steele, Katie, and Charlotte Werndl. 2013. “Climate Models, Calibration, and Confirmation.” The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 64 (3): 609–35.
  • Frisch, Mathias. 2015. “Predictivism and Old Evidence: A Critical Look at Climate Model Tuning.” European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2): 171–90.
  • Frigg, Roman, Erica Thompson, and Charlotte Werndl. 2015. “Philosophy of Climate Science Part II: Modelling Climate.” Philosophy Compass 12: 965–77.